Grímsvötn

Meteosat Second Generation (MSG)

Image of Ash Cloud taken 06:00am on 24th May 2011

Image taken on 23rd of May

MSG images are monitoring for the presence of volcanic ash emission in the vicinity of Iceland using infrared data from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite. Because cloud particles and volcanic ash particles interact with the infrared radiation in different ways, data at several different wavelengths can be combined to identify the main ash plume, which, when present, would be shown as yellow and orange colours in the images. However, it should be noted that it is only the thicker parts of the plume that are able to be detected by this method. In addition, the ash plume is often masked by overlying high cloud and therefore might not appear in the satellite image.

Loganair, based at Glasgow airport, has cancelled 36 flights on Tuesday as the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) warns that disruption cannot be ruled out.

Analysts expect the ash cloud from an Icelandic volcano to reach Scotland and Northern Ireland by Monday evening.

The event comes a year after ash from the Eyjafjallajokull volcano spread across Europe, causing huge disruption.

'Better prepared'

Andrew Haines, chief executive of the CAA, said: "Our number one priority is to ensure the safety of people both onboard aircraft and on the ground.

"We can't rule out disruption, but the new arrangements that have been put in place since last year's ash cloud mean the aviation sector is better prepared and will help to reduce any disruption in the event that volcanic ash affects UK airspace."

A Loganair spokesman said Met Office forecasts indicated that a high density of ash would be present in large parts of Scottish airspace throughout Tuesday, clearing into Wednesday morning.

It has cancelled almost all flights on Tuesday and advised customers due to travel to contact them to rearrange flights. Only inter-island routes in Orkney are unaffected.

The UK's air traffic control service, Nats, said volcanic ash was forecast to affect parts of Scotland between 1800 BST and midnight on Monday.

Services may be affected from Barra, Benbecula and Tiree.

The Met Office, which runs Europe's Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre, earlier said there was a possibility of ash moving across the UK towards the end of the week.

But a spokesman said the weather was much more changeable than at the time of last year's eruption and there was a lot more uncertainty.

The CAA said ash levels would be graded as low, medium or high, and airlines would be notified if levels reached medium or high.

Airlines would then consider whether to fly, according to risk assessments already carried out, the CAA added.

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The system involves placing infrared technology on to an aircraft to supply images to both the pilots and an airline's flight control centre.

These images will enable pilots to see an ash cloud up to 62 miles (100 kilometres) ahead of the aircraft and at altitudes between 5,000ft and 50,000ft.

This will allow pilots to make adjustments to the plane's flight path to avoid any ash cloud.

Millions of passengers had their travel plans wrecked when airlines had to scrap thousands of flights in recent weeks due to Icelandic volcanic ash.

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Glasgow, Prestwick and Derry are likely to be closed all day, while there are plans to shut Inverness in the morning only, and Belfast in the afternoon.

The CAA advised air passengers to check with airports before travelling and warned the situation was changeable.

Last month, volcanic ash clouds from Iceland grounded flights for six days.

The situation in the skies has been changing hour by hour, meaning the picture for air travellers is unclear.

Dublin Airport will also close from 1100 BST until further notice.

Forecasts show the 60 nautical mile buffer zone imposed around high concentrations of ash is close to some northern airports.

AIRPORT CLOSURES Glasgow 0700-1900 Prestwick 0700-1900 Inverness 0700-1300 Stornoway 0700-1900 Benbecula 0700-1900 Tiree 0700-1900 Islay 0700-1900 Barra 0700-1900 Campbeltown 0700-1900 Derry 0700-1900 Belfast International 1300-1900 Belfast City 1300-1900 Dublin 1100-onwards All times in BST. Source: CAA at 0200 BST

However, the latest advice issued by the CAA at 0200 BST said airports in Edinburgh and north-west England could safely stay open on Wednesday, despite the proximity of the ash.

The CAA says the South East of England is unlikely to be affected on Wednesday.

In a statement, the CAA said: "The situation remains changeable, so passengers expecting to travel from airports in Scotland, Northern Ireland, the North of England and north Wales should contact their airlines to check whether their flight is operating."

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Airspace over Scotland's Outer Hebrides was closed, affecting Tiree, Barra and Benbecula airports, with Campeltown in Argyll also closed.

Flights in and out of the Republic are due to resume from 1300 BST.

An ash plume is drifting south from the same Icelandic volcano that wreaked havoc to European air travel in April.

Flights over Europe were banned for six days last month because of fears of the effect of volcanic ash on plane engines.

In the rest of the UK, schedules are operating as normal.

The decision to lift the restrictions followed safety tests that showed the engines could cope in areas of low density ash.

The fresh disruption comes as European Union transport ministers are meeting in Brussels to discuss ways to improve air traffic management in the wake of last month's events.

Last week a spokeswoman for EU Transport Commissioner Siim Kallas said that had there been more co-ordination at EU level, air traffic could have resumed up to three days earlier.

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After six days of disruption due to a cloud of volcanic ash from an Icelandic volcano, airlines can now start a phased return to flight schedules.

The decision followed consultation with the Civil Aviation Authority and a reassessment of the risk to aircraft.

BAA, which operates many of the UK's airports, said people should contact their airlines before travelling.

"Not all flights will operate during the early period of opening, and we will do everything we can to support airlines and get people moving," a spokesman said.

Some restrictions will remain on flights in UK airspace, but they will be much less severe than before.

Dame Deirdre Hutton, of the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), said there had been detailed consultation with experts to reassess the tolerance of planes to the ash cloud.

The CAA said it was a "situation without precedent" and that decisions had been made based on "thorough gathering of data and analysis".

'Increased tolerance'

"The major barrier to resuming flight has been understanding tolerance levels of aircraft to ash," the CAA said.

"Manufacturers have now agreed increased tolerance levels in low ash density areas."

Lord Adonis emphasised that safety remained paramount.

He said: "It is essential that we guarantee to the travelling public that the airlines are safe and that planes can safely fly."

Prime Minister Gordon Brown said: "This solution has been reached as a result of the close working between the government, the Civil Aviation Authority, airlines and the manufacturers, and will allow the thousands of UK citizens stranded abroad to return home to their families.

There will be plenty of time for a post mortem of what has happened Willie Walsh, British Airways

"We will of course continue to monitor the situation closely; as we have said throughout safety is our primary concern," he added.

Shadow transport secretary Theresa Villiers said: "Labour must immediately commit to a full inquiry into this fiasco, which has caused so much travel misery and billions of pounds of economic damage.

"Six days into the crisis, we're suddenly told that there are actually levels of ash which are compatible with safe flying. The question angry passengers and airlines are already asking is why the government hadn't worked this out before the crisis occurred."

After the lifting of the restrictions, the first British Airways flight to touch down from Heathrow was a service already in the air from Vancouver, which landed shortly before 2200 BST.

The airline's chief executive Willie Walsh said he was pleased with the decision, but said it would take weeks to get back to normal levels of operation.

"We're now at British Airways going to start the difficult task of getting our stranded customers back home but I think this is an airlift that is unprecedented but we will make every effort to get our people back home."

USEFUL LINKS Latest health advice Air passenger rights Travel news Foreign Office advice (external link) Live: Volcano updates

He said "lessons can be learned" and added: "There will be plenty of time for a post-mortem of what has happened over the last few days."

He said parts of the UK airspace could have been opened several days ago. "My personal belief is that we could have safely continued operating for a period of time. I think there were occasions when the decision to close airspace could have been justified."

EasyJet said it planned to resume "some services across the UK and continental Europe from tomorrow morning," but added that the level of disruption meant it would be several days before the schedule returned to normal.

Flights have been grounded across the UK and much of Europe since Thursday following the eruption of Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajokull.

The eruption sent vast amounts of ash into the atmosphere which poses a threat to aircraft jet engines.

Despite the lifting of the ban, it will be some time before flights return to normal.

The UK Border Agency warned people to expect queues as staff attempt to process large numbers of returning travellers.

A spokesman said: "We are manning as many passport desks as possible."

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The first planes from Edinburgh and Glasgow both headed for Stornaway after 0700 BST - among a handful of internal flights scheduled from Scotland.

But Nats said a new ash cloud was causing uncertainty and there was now a worsening situation in some areas.

Belfast Airport said it hoped to start flights to Scotland from 1000 BST.

It said if it got the go ahead from Nats, a Flybe flight to Glasgow would leave at 1015 BST.

Although Scottish airspace is open most of the flights are said to be to destinations elsewhere in Scotland.

EXPERT ADVICE Latest health advice Latest: Air passenger rights Q&A: Volcanic ash cloud Travel latest

The first international flight from Glasgow is due to head for Reykjavik in Iceland at midday.

Schedules are constantly changing and passengers have been advised not to travel to airports until they have checked with their airline or tour operator.

At Glasgow, there was only a trickle of passengers checking in for the Stornoway flight, which carried about 30 passengers.

Some of the check-in desks were staffed, but had no queues. A flight from Aberdeen to Newcastle was set to depart at 0825 BST. Flights from Newcastle are expected to head to Aberdeen and the Isle of Man.

illustration of volcanic ash dispersion up to 20,000 ft, issued at 7 am on 20 April. Advisory charts are issued every six hours, for up to 18 hours ahead, by the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre.

The blanket ban on flying to and from the UK will be lifted as early as 6am tomorrow, airport sources revealed this afternoon.

Scottish airspace will reopen first, followed by the Midlands around midday and airports in the South at around 6pm.

A statement is expected later this afternoon but the news will come as a massive relief to the thousands of British travellers stranded abroad - although the backlog of flights is likely to take days to clear.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1267257/Iceland-volcano-eruption-UK-flight-ban-LIFTED-tomorrow.html#ixzz0lYwBdRfC

But, as Professor Jon Davidson - an earth scientist from the University of Durham - told BBC News, it was not the eruption per se that caused the problem.

"It's the fact that the prevailing winds are driving the ash plume over the UK," he explained.

And scientists in Iceland reported on Friday morning that the volcano was continuing to generate a tall plume of ash - contributing to the cloud already drifting high in the atmosphere over the UK.

So the cloud that has grounded UK flights appears to be continuing to grow. And the researchers say that could go on for several days.

Dr David Rothery, a volcanologist from the UK's Open University agrees this could happen, but suggests that it is unlikely.

Intense and explosive

"It is usual that an explosive eruption like this has its most intensive point at the start and that it gradually subsides," he told BBC News.

What scientists are trying to find out, he explained, is if the [ongoing] eruption is explosive enough to create a tall column of ash and continue feeding the plume.

It is the explosion that initially forces the ash upward - expanding gas at the eruption site generates thrust. From there, the cloud of dust and gas rises because it is warmer than the surrounding air.

So if the eruption continues to be intense and explosive, giving the ash that initial upward thrust, the plume that has been blown in UK and European airspace could continue to grow.

But according to the most recent reports from the UK Met Office and the Icelandic Met Service, ash is now being released in pulses rather than a continuous plume.

Unpredictable eruption

Professor Davidson said that there was no way to reliably predict how the Eyjafjallajokull volcano will behave.

"This eruption started on 20 March," he said. "So in a sense it's been erupting already for almost a month.

"We will be watching the seismic activity because [from that] we will be able to see the predictions in changes in the behaviour of the volcano that will herald an increase or decrease in its activity."

And currently, there appears to be far less seismic activity in Iceland than in the days running up to Wednesday's eruption. This could mean that the worst is over.

But researchers in Iceland, who have analysed the first sample of ash produced by the volcano, have found that its composition could contribute to the explosiveness of future eruptions.

"The magma is much richer in silicon than the basalt that was previously erupting in the initial stages," explained Dr Mike Burton, senior volcanologist at the Italian National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology.

"This has two important implications. Firstly, the ash produced will be finer, with smaller particles compared with basalt."

Finer ash will rise more easily.

Secondly, he said, "the activity may well be more explosive because of the higher viscosity of the magma."

The more viscous the magma, the less easily gas flows through it. "Therefore it's easier for pressure build up to occur, leading to more violent explosions."

Through Thursday and Friday, the volcano has continued to feed an existing large plume of ash that is moving very slowly eastward at a height of about 30,000ft.

Aviation authorities cannot risk reinstating flights when this plume is within airspace, as the ash could clog jet engines and cause them to fail.

Jim Haywood, a researcher from the Met Office confirmed on Friday that he and his colleagues had detected the plume above the UK.

"It's patchy but it's certainly there, although you won't see it with the naked eye," he said.

"We are formulating some forecasts about how long this may last, but that will be very dependent on the eruption from the volcano, so we're working closely with scientists in Iceland to get the most up to date information about the eruption height and intensity."

The UK is enduring a fourth day as a virtual no-fly zone due to volcanic ash drifting from Iceland, leaving Britons stranded around the world.

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